As a family member, a community participant, a business leader, or a politician, YOU must ACT NOW!

This is not your average Coronavirus article.  It is not going to help you feel better about doing the things you want to do.  It will talk about the responsibility that YOU have and how you need to ACT NOW to contribute to your family and your community.

No doubt that there is a ton of information out there about the Coronavirus, and it is most likely very difficult to wrap your head around it and make sense of it.  You are probably asking yourself questions like “What should I do?” or “What can I do?” or “Is this blown out of proportion?”  These questions are totally normal and this article will attempt to answer these questions.  This article will focus on data and a call to action in order to help you get the information you need to make your decision.  The hope is that when you are done reading this article you will have a better understanding of your part and the urgency needed by all of us.

Coronavirus will Reach You…in Days

The fact is that this virus is spreading too fast and will ultimately reach your community in days or weeks…not months.  When it does, your community will need to respond.  Healthcare systems will be bogged down.  Grocery stores will be flooded.  Pharmacies will be overrun.  People you know will be infected.  People will be treated in tents or hallways.  Healthcare workers will become infected and will have to be quarantined.

Doctors Zunyou Wu, MD, PhD and Jennifer M. McGoogan, PhD reviewed over 72,000 cases of Coronavirus from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and published their results.  In the graph below, you  can see that the number of confirmed cases of the virus began to grow in early January and then exponentially grew into mid-late January.  What you will also find in this graph is that when the government, the communities, and the people started acting by shutting down cities in late January the number of cases began to sharply drop.  To clarify here – there are still people and cases that need to be treated – but the takeaway here is that the growth and spread of the virus was contained by shutting down cities.

Source:  “Epidemic Curve of the Confirmed Cases of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)” from Jama Network

If you look back at history, the SARS outbreak in 2003 also has a common pattern.  Another concerned citizen, Tomas Pueyo, found a very interesting data insight from mining the data at the Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 Data Repository by Johns Hopkins CSSE, a daily updated data repository provided by the Johns Hopkins University and supported by the ESRI Living Atlas Team.  In the graph below, Tomas shows that of the countries most impacted by SARS in 2003 (Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, Thailand, and Taiwan) show a pattern that largely suggests that the Coronavirus is being contained within these regions.  Why?  Because they know that shutting down cities, taking immediate actions to stop the spread of the virus is the only way to combat it.  These regions have lived through it and are using these learnings to combat this pandemic.

Source:  Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now by Tomas Pueyo

Last thing here…there is a big difference between cases that are known, reported, and official vs people having the virus.  This is really, really critical to your decision and your action.  The point is that since this is all new and we are all trying to figure it out the actual number of people that might have the virus may be more than you know about.  You may have it…your family member…your neighbor…your co-worker….your mail carrier…and they may not know they have it or worse yet may have symptoms but not the knowledge to capability to get tested.  This is how the virus spreads.  This is where YOU can ACT.

The Economy is ALREADY Broken 

You need to come to terms with the fact that the economy is already broken.  As we all watch the markets, our financial portfolios, and the economy tank – just realize that it will get worse and ultimately will get better.  As more people take ACTION, it will impact jobs and commerce.  Remember, people will be impacted and will get  sick and when they do they will not be able to perform their jobs.  Small businesses will need to take losses.  Corporations will need to pull their investments and re-invest in their business.  Sales and Marketing departments will miss their goals.  College savings plans will be significantly less in value for graduating seniors.  This is a reality and we need to treat it as such.  Again….this is where YOU  can ACT.

Flatten the Curve:  Social Distancing is REAL and Needs to be Practiced Immediately

Saturday March 14th is known as “pi day” and this year falls on the day that people like to celebrate St. Patrick’s Day.  In Chicago, the bars were not empty – actually they were full….full of people in close proximity laughing, drinking, and having a good time.  This all while the City of Chicago completely cancelled the St Patrick’s Day parade, closed all of the public schools, and shut down all local community event spaces for the next 4-6 weeks.

This is where YOU can ACT by Flattening the Curve.  We need to treat this as an immediate pandemic…now.  We cannot wait until there are 5-10 or 50-100 more reported cases.  We need to learn from SARS and Drs. Wu and McGoodan by taking action – NOW.

YOU can ACT just like the Taiwanese officials did in late December 2019 when the World Health Organization released information about Wuhan, China (See Response to COVID-19 in Taiwan).

YOU can ACT just like the NBA, MLB, NHL, NCAA, NASCAR, PGA, and other major sports organizations did by cancelling or postponing their seasons.

YOU can ACT just like many communities are by closing schools, closing community spaces, and cancelling planned group organized events.

….but in order to fully combat the virus YOU need to still do more to Flatten the Curve.

In the NY Times simulation model “How Much Worse the Coronavirus Could Get, in Charts” you can see a simulation of why we need to ACT NOW and you can see the exponential impact in waiting a day, a week, or even a month.  This video clip was obtained from the NY Times simulation and shows some drastic impacts if no action is taken and how we not only need to take action – but do it now and take it seriously.